In yet another harbinger of tomorrow’s official jobless report, Gallup shows a sharp increase in unemployment for September, pushing their estimate of joblessness to 10.1%. The pollster also warns that tomorrow’s figure will miss some of the change, which will likely lull some into a sense that no action is needed:
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September — up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month — the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September — and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government’s unemployment report on Friday. …
The government’s final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup’s modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday’s ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government’s national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup’s mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.
The underemployment number should remain steady, Gallup predicts, but not because businesses are hiring. Gallup predicts that their equivalent to the U-6 number will hit between 18.6% and 18.8% because they see fewer people working part-time but looking for full-time employment. More part-timers had their positions converted to full time, but businesses aren’t hiring part-timers to add to their staffs now.
This has implications beyond employment or the elections, too. With unemployment rising again, the upcoming holiday season could be another disaster like 2008. Job insecurity will result in more savings and more frugality in a season that makes or breaks retail businesses. The pending tax hikes will also have some with cash less likely to part with it as well. With that in mind, retailers are going to hire fewer people this holiday season in anticipation of lower demand, and Gallup warns this will mean a brutal fourth quarter for the economy.
At the same time, the Department of Labor announced that initial jobless claims fell for the third straight week to a four-month low at 445,000. This hits at the lower end of the range seen for all of 2010, so it’s not exactly “unexpected.” It does, however, mean that either Gallup’s data doesn’t account entirely for the job swings, or that Gallup’s data is more recent on job losses and we can expect to see the jobless claims start to rise again in the next couple of weeks, as those who lost their jobs in the final two weeks become eligible to apply for benefits.
With all of the predictors in place, where do you think the jobless rate will be tomorrow morning? Take the poll:
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
11% Of Obama Voters Don't Remember Voting For Him
Nice Deb - An interesting psychological phenomenon is happening to some people who voted for Obama.
According to The Hill, who conducted the poll, with ANGA:
Two-thirds of voters in key battleground districts will be thinking about President Obama when they choose their next member of Congress, according to a 2010 midterm election poll from The Hill and ANGA.The poll surveyed likely voters in 12 competitive congressional districts held by first-term Democratic lawmakers who came into office with the president in 2008.
“All politics is local, but not all voting,” said pollster Mark Penn of Penn Schoen Berland, which conducted the poll.
“I think, without question, people view this as a national election,” Penn said. “The strongest thing working against the administration today is the number of people dissatisfied with the economy and the government and who are willing to take their votes and vote on a national basis rather than on the merits of the individual candidate.”
One telling finding is that only 42 percent of respondents said they recalled voting for Obama in 2008 even though the president received, on average, 53 percent of the vote in those districts.
Pollsters said that finding could indicate voter remorse, which may reflect a major drop in enthusiasm for the president. Another explanation may be that many of those who supported Obama in 2008 are unlikely to vote this year.
I think the finding reveals the human brain has a biological mechanism to block unwanted memories.
Research has shown that “people are capable of repeatedly blocking thoughts of experiences they don’t want to remember until they can no longer retrieve the memory, even if they want to”.
If I had voted for Obama, I’d be so embarrassed and ashamed, I’d probably block it from my memory, too.
According to The Hill, who conducted the poll, with ANGA:
Two-thirds of voters in key battleground districts will be thinking about President Obama when they choose their next member of Congress, according to a 2010 midterm election poll from The Hill and ANGA.The poll surveyed likely voters in 12 competitive congressional districts held by first-term Democratic lawmakers who came into office with the president in 2008.
“All politics is local, but not all voting,” said pollster Mark Penn of Penn Schoen Berland, which conducted the poll.
“I think, without question, people view this as a national election,” Penn said. “The strongest thing working against the administration today is the number of people dissatisfied with the economy and the government and who are willing to take their votes and vote on a national basis rather than on the merits of the individual candidate.”
One telling finding is that only 42 percent of respondents said they recalled voting for Obama in 2008 even though the president received, on average, 53 percent of the vote in those districts.
Pollsters said that finding could indicate voter remorse, which may reflect a major drop in enthusiasm for the president. Another explanation may be that many of those who supported Obama in 2008 are unlikely to vote this year.
I think the finding reveals the human brain has a biological mechanism to block unwanted memories.
Research has shown that “people are capable of repeatedly blocking thoughts of experiences they don’t want to remember until they can no longer retrieve the memory, even if they want to”.
If I had voted for Obama, I’d be so embarrassed and ashamed, I’d probably block it from my memory, too.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Angle By Three In Nevada, Rease By Five In West Virgina
Fox News Poll: Both leads are within the margin of error but don’t worry about that. The important thing is the tea leaves showing how the races might break over the last month. In Angle’s case, the worry has been that undecideds will tilt towards Reid in the crunch on the theory that the devil you know is preferable to the one you don’t. Not so, if FNC’s numbers are right: Angle’s moved up four points in this poll to lead 49/46 with five percent undecided (or voting other). In the last poll, with 10 percent undecided/other, she was stuck at 45 percent and trailing by a point. In other words, the fencesitters are falling her way even though 53 percent overall say they find her views “too extreme.” (Fully 56 percent say Reid’s been in office too long.)
Nevada will be up in the air until late on election night. Will West Virginia? Dude:
A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters — 48 percent to 43 percent.
In what may be the year’s clearest case of Obama’s downward pull on his party’s candidates, Manchin gets high marks from voters – 66 percent approved of his job performance and 65 percent had a positive view of him personally — but they still prefer Raese…
Manchin’s most obvious problem is Obama’s 29 percent approval rating in the state. Only 12 percent believe that Obama’s policies have helped the state economically, while 55 percent in the coal-rich state believe they have hurt. That is borne out in the slim 28 percent of respondents who supported a plan to address global warming like the one Obama favors.
Remember, thanks to Manchin’s remarkable approval rating, this seat was supposed to be a Democratic gimme. As it is, the race has become almost a pure referendum on Obama, with Manchin’s popularity likely the only thing stopping it from turning into a Republican landslide. Raese wins 54 percent of independents and a quarter of Democrats(!) and Fox notes that tea party support is higher in West Virginia than any other state surveyed this week. Which raises the question: Why should anyone believe that Raese’s lead will narrow? All three pollsters to survey this race since last month now show him ahead. If the race really has become a simple exercise in voters registering their disgust with Obama by voting against the Democrat then there’s practically nothing Manchin can do to dent that lead. The race isn’t about him and it isn’t about Raese, and there are no Hopenchange miracles on the way this month to change anyone’s mind about The One. He’s stuck. In fact, have a look at the new NRSC ad below; they understand the dynamics of this race perfectly.
As DrewM notes, what makes West Virginia especially important is that it’s also a special election, which means the winner will be seated for the lame-duck session. Raese’s vote will come in handy if the White House starts to get any funny ideas about, say, immigration or cap-and-trade. Elsewhere in poll news: Fox shows Rob Portman continuing to destroy Lee Fisher and Survey USA and Rasmussen both show Fiorina trailing Boxer in California but within the margin of error. With a 16 percent likelihood of flipping, that’s the longest longshot right now in Nate Silver’s analysis of the 11 most vulnerable Democratic seats; each of the other 10 stand a 25 percent chance or better of breaking Republican and eight of them stand a 50 percent chance or better. West Virginia is currently rated a 37 percent chance to flip, but don’t be surprised to see that crack 50 percent sometime this afternoon.
Nevada will be up in the air until late on election night. Will West Virginia? Dude:
A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters — 48 percent to 43 percent.
In what may be the year’s clearest case of Obama’s downward pull on his party’s candidates, Manchin gets high marks from voters – 66 percent approved of his job performance and 65 percent had a positive view of him personally — but they still prefer Raese…
Manchin’s most obvious problem is Obama’s 29 percent approval rating in the state. Only 12 percent believe that Obama’s policies have helped the state economically, while 55 percent in the coal-rich state believe they have hurt. That is borne out in the slim 28 percent of respondents who supported a plan to address global warming like the one Obama favors.
Remember, thanks to Manchin’s remarkable approval rating, this seat was supposed to be a Democratic gimme. As it is, the race has become almost a pure referendum on Obama, with Manchin’s popularity likely the only thing stopping it from turning into a Republican landslide. Raese wins 54 percent of independents and a quarter of Democrats(!) and Fox notes that tea party support is higher in West Virginia than any other state surveyed this week. Which raises the question: Why should anyone believe that Raese’s lead will narrow? All three pollsters to survey this race since last month now show him ahead. If the race really has become a simple exercise in voters registering their disgust with Obama by voting against the Democrat then there’s practically nothing Manchin can do to dent that lead. The race isn’t about him and it isn’t about Raese, and there are no Hopenchange miracles on the way this month to change anyone’s mind about The One. He’s stuck. In fact, have a look at the new NRSC ad below; they understand the dynamics of this race perfectly.
As DrewM notes, what makes West Virginia especially important is that it’s also a special election, which means the winner will be seated for the lame-duck session. Raese’s vote will come in handy if the White House starts to get any funny ideas about, say, immigration or cap-and-trade. Elsewhere in poll news: Fox shows Rob Portman continuing to destroy Lee Fisher and Survey USA and Rasmussen both show Fiorina trailing Boxer in California but within the margin of error. With a 16 percent likelihood of flipping, that’s the longest longshot right now in Nate Silver’s analysis of the 11 most vulnerable Democratic seats; each of the other 10 stand a 25 percent chance or better of breaking Republican and eight of them stand a 50 percent chance or better. West Virginia is currently rated a 37 percent chance to flip, but don’t be surprised to see that crack 50 percent sometime this afternoon.
Monday, October 4, 2010
The New Slogan On The Left
JustOneMinute - In the course of telling us how CNN and MSNBC have floundered in chasing Fox News, we learn the new liberal slogan of MSNBC:
The network hired Spike Lee to shoot a multi-million-dollar advertising campaign and developed its own obtuse slogan: “Lean Forward.”
Oh, geez - why don't they just lean the rest of the way and announce that the new progressive slogan is "Bend Over"?
BLOW THEM DOWN: It's New York Magazine, so we expect the usual liberal self-congratulation. Ad they deliver!
...MSNBC’s new identity has been a ratings boon. Its audience is less than half the size of Fox’s, partly because liberals tend to pride themselves on being part of the fact-based community and may prefer media products like the New York Times, or the PBS NewsHour, which make their points without shouting.
Obviously they have read neither the latest Pew Research nor the Charles Blow column summarizing it. His second paragraph:
The unpleasant fact that these liberals rarely mention, and may not know, is that large swaths of the Democratic base, groups they need to vote in droves next month — blacks, Hispanics and young people — are far less civically literate than their conservative counterparts.
And I would also guess they haven't perused such calm, thoughtful sites as DKos lately. Or ever.
OK, THAT'S EERIE: Other than this New York story (picked up by Politico) I can't find any confirmation of a new MSNBC slogan. However, roughly a minute after I posted this piece, my last desperate Google search echoed back my own blog post. By way of contrast, Bing is ignoring me even two minutes later.
The network hired Spike Lee to shoot a multi-million-dollar advertising campaign and developed its own obtuse slogan: “Lean Forward.”
Oh, geez - why don't they just lean the rest of the way and announce that the new progressive slogan is "Bend Over"?
BLOW THEM DOWN: It's New York Magazine, so we expect the usual liberal self-congratulation. Ad they deliver!
...MSNBC’s new identity has been a ratings boon. Its audience is less than half the size of Fox’s, partly because liberals tend to pride themselves on being part of the fact-based community and may prefer media products like the New York Times, or the PBS NewsHour, which make their points without shouting.
Obviously they have read neither the latest Pew Research nor the Charles Blow column summarizing it. His second paragraph:
The unpleasant fact that these liberals rarely mention, and may not know, is that large swaths of the Democratic base, groups they need to vote in droves next month — blacks, Hispanics and young people — are far less civically literate than their conservative counterparts.
And I would also guess they haven't perused such calm, thoughtful sites as DKos lately. Or ever.
OK, THAT'S EERIE: Other than this New York story (picked up by Politico) I can't find any confirmation of a new MSNBC slogan. However, roughly a minute after I posted this piece, my last desperate Google search echoed back my own blog post. By way of contrast, Bing is ignoring me even two minutes later.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Background Checks Required To Visit Your Children At School
Matt Ryan - Over 3,700 schools in Texas and 7,000 nationwide have implemented a system requiring parents visiting their children to undergo a background check upon arrival to the school. This check is carried out by a company called Raptor, which summarizes their services as:
Thousands of schools and community facilities across the country use Raptor’s V-soft visitor management and screening technology to help protect children from sex offenders, domestic dispute offenders and other trespassers. V-soft works in conjunction with law enforcement to add an extra layer of security and keep our kids safe.
While the mission of protecting children from sex offenders has a broad appeal, domestic dispute charges include a broad range of situations including issues as minor as loud arguments among siblings. A definition of domestic dispute from USLegal.com describes the term as including non-crimes:
A domestic dispute is generally any quarrel, which may or may not include violence, within a family or between members of the same household. Definitions are governed by local laws, which vary, and may also cover including any child or an adult or fully emancipated minor who is a spouse, former spouse, cohabitant, former cohabitant or person with whom a suspect has had a child or has or has had a dating or engagement relationship. It may or may not include criminal behavior. Local laws should be consulted for specific requirements in your area.
According to Raptor, their background check includes arrest records, which doesn’t indicate conviction or acquittal indicating that the notion of being innocent until proven guilty does not apply here. Below are the records included in a Raptor background check:
# Arrest Records (ARST)
# Administrative Office of the Courts
# Department of Corrections
# County Court
# District Court
# Superior Court
# Municipal Court
# District Clerk
# Common Pleas
# Clerk of Court
Recently, parents have begun taking legal action to defend their constitutional right to privacy, however, a federal appeals court has ruled that screening for sex offenders does not violate constitutional rights. The court failed to address the fact that Raptor screens for a much larger set of circumstances than sex offenses. Local Austin news station KXAN reported:
But a few years before, another mother, Yvonne Meadows, said, for simply wanting to see her child, Raptor seemed a little extreme, even an unconstitutional invasion of privacy.
“Don’t be asking me to fork out this information so I can go participate with my kids and their education,” Meadows told KXAN on the phone in 2008, when her case was still in the trial stage.
She has since moved away from the district, home schools her kids.
Disappointingly, teachers and faculty are being hired around the nation with often violent criminal records. Almost every week now, a story comes out about sex crimes being committed against students. While parents are being forced to reveal their entire history in order to see their own child, teachers are passed through the system.
Public schools have become more and more like prisons over the years as students are issued ids allowing them to be tracked as they move from class to class, subject to aggressive and violent “training operations“, and otherwise treated more like prisoners and less like citizens. For years public schools have increased in militarism, allowing themselves to give up state’s rights for national control.
Thousands of schools and community facilities across the country use Raptor’s V-soft visitor management and screening technology to help protect children from sex offenders, domestic dispute offenders and other trespassers. V-soft works in conjunction with law enforcement to add an extra layer of security and keep our kids safe.
While the mission of protecting children from sex offenders has a broad appeal, domestic dispute charges include a broad range of situations including issues as minor as loud arguments among siblings. A definition of domestic dispute from USLegal.com describes the term as including non-crimes:
A domestic dispute is generally any quarrel, which may or may not include violence, within a family or between members of the same household. Definitions are governed by local laws, which vary, and may also cover including any child or an adult or fully emancipated minor who is a spouse, former spouse, cohabitant, former cohabitant or person with whom a suspect has had a child or has or has had a dating or engagement relationship. It may or may not include criminal behavior. Local laws should be consulted for specific requirements in your area.
According to Raptor, their background check includes arrest records, which doesn’t indicate conviction or acquittal indicating that the notion of being innocent until proven guilty does not apply here. Below are the records included in a Raptor background check:
# Arrest Records (ARST)
# Administrative Office of the Courts
# Department of Corrections
# County Court
# District Court
# Superior Court
# Municipal Court
# District Clerk
# Common Pleas
# Clerk of Court
Recently, parents have begun taking legal action to defend their constitutional right to privacy, however, a federal appeals court has ruled that screening for sex offenders does not violate constitutional rights. The court failed to address the fact that Raptor screens for a much larger set of circumstances than sex offenses. Local Austin news station KXAN reported:
But a few years before, another mother, Yvonne Meadows, said, for simply wanting to see her child, Raptor seemed a little extreme, even an unconstitutional invasion of privacy.
“Don’t be asking me to fork out this information so I can go participate with my kids and their education,” Meadows told KXAN on the phone in 2008, when her case was still in the trial stage.
She has since moved away from the district, home schools her kids.
Disappointingly, teachers and faculty are being hired around the nation with often violent criminal records. Almost every week now, a story comes out about sex crimes being committed against students. While parents are being forced to reveal their entire history in order to see their own child, teachers are passed through the system.
Public schools have become more and more like prisons over the years as students are issued ids allowing them to be tracked as they move from class to class, subject to aggressive and violent “training operations“, and otherwise treated more like prisoners and less like citizens. For years public schools have increased in militarism, allowing themselves to give up state’s rights for national control.
Bishop Eddie Long: Ex-Wife Claims Abuse During There Divorce
In 1985 divorce papers, Bishop Eddie Long’s ex-wife, Dabara Houston, claimed that she was subjected to “cruel treatment” by Eddie Long when she was almost 8 months pregnant with their son.
According to papers filed in Atlanta’s Fulton County Superior Court, Houston was afraid of Long’s “violent and vicious temper.” She and her son fled the couples Fairburn, GA home “in order to ensure their safety.”
Their son, Edward Long, is currently New Birth Missionary Baptist Church’s youth director for junior and senior high ministries.
Bishop Eddie Long could not be reached for comment, but through his attorney, Craig Gillen, he addressed the news in a statement which said “The allegations of a divorce pleading that is nearly 30 years old are absolutely ‘not true.’ It’s offensive and disappointing that the media would drag up these outrageous allegations and make them a part of their reporting.”
These new accusations come just days after two of Longs accusers spoke publicly in interviews.
Jamal Parris one of Longs accusers, first spoke on Tuesday evening to FOX Atlanta, calling Bishop Long a “monster”. Parris said Long had encouraged him to call him “Daddy,” and that he “would discuss the Holy Scripture to justify and support the sexual activity.”
Wednesday, Spencer LeGrande, another accuser, told WSB-TV in Atlanta that he has been “free” since filing the lawsuit. “This is a hard time for the world and you know I have no hate for anyone, because God doesn’t produce hate,” Spencer LeGrande told ABC affiliate, “I pray for everyone, especially Bishop, ’cause he knows the truth, he knows the truth.”
Because Bishops Longs four accusers all claim to have had sexual relationships with Long when they were 17 and 18, Long will not face criminal charges. The legal age of consent in Georgia is 16.
According to papers filed in Atlanta’s Fulton County Superior Court, Houston was afraid of Long’s “violent and vicious temper.” She and her son fled the couples Fairburn, GA home “in order to ensure their safety.”
Their son, Edward Long, is currently New Birth Missionary Baptist Church’s youth director for junior and senior high ministries.
Bishop Eddie Long could not be reached for comment, but through his attorney, Craig Gillen, he addressed the news in a statement which said “The allegations of a divorce pleading that is nearly 30 years old are absolutely ‘not true.’ It’s offensive and disappointing that the media would drag up these outrageous allegations and make them a part of their reporting.”
These new accusations come just days after two of Longs accusers spoke publicly in interviews.
Jamal Parris one of Longs accusers, first spoke on Tuesday evening to FOX Atlanta, calling Bishop Long a “monster”. Parris said Long had encouraged him to call him “Daddy,” and that he “would discuss the Holy Scripture to justify and support the sexual activity.”
Wednesday, Spencer LeGrande, another accuser, told WSB-TV in Atlanta that he has been “free” since filing the lawsuit. “This is a hard time for the world and you know I have no hate for anyone, because God doesn’t produce hate,” Spencer LeGrande told ABC affiliate, “I pray for everyone, especially Bishop, ’cause he knows the truth, he knows the truth.”
Because Bishops Longs four accusers all claim to have had sexual relationships with Long when they were 17 and 18, Long will not face criminal charges. The legal age of consent in Georgia is 16.
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